After twelve quarters of football, I was worried last weekend’s wild card weekend would be defined by rookie J.J Watt intercepting the ball for a touchdown and helping the Texans win their first ever playoff game. Wild card weekend is always associated with craziness and unpredictability.  Then, as empty as the first 3 games were, the fourth made every other wild card weekend seem as predictable as Shaq shooting a free throw. The dramatics in football is second to none, and Tim Tebow just reminded everyone why football is so popular. I was in a room watching the game with a diehard Steeler fan, and even he had to fall to” Tebow Mania” (of course this was after some shits, fucks, and even a couple how did that happen?).

The first scroll of the divisional round board poses some intriguing matchups, with three of them being re-matches from games earlier in the season. We can only hope we see the board as clear as last week.

Same Game 7 Point Teaser: San Francisco +11.5, under  54.5

I try to stay away from these damn things, but every once in a while you can spot an opportunity to cross some key numbers and give yourself a little more comfort in your bet.  All season the Niners have been an undervalued team in the betting market, rewarding loyal and smart bettors with a 12-3-1 ATS record. They are seeing a monster of a Saints’ offense on Saturday, but the only thing that beats a great offense is a great defense. The easiest way to remember that is to look back in the past when Tampa Bay defeated Oakland in Super Bowl XXXVII. The talk all week has been New Orleans letting go of the security blanket that is their home field advantage and taking their show on the road. I feel them playing on grass will play a factor, especially considering the defense they will be facing. San Francisco is giving up 10.9 PPG at home, which is a remarkable number considering the scoring that has happened this season.

New Orleans has only played 5 outdoor road games (Green Bay, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Tennessee), with Green Bay coming week one and the two divisional teams having horrible defenses. In the games against the Jaguars and Titans they scored 23 and 22 points respectably, with both games being totaled under 47.5. Another factor that needs to be considered is the spectacular kickers for the Niners in Andy Lee and David Akers. Andy Lee will force the Saints to march (no pun intended) down a long field, and the ability to hit long field goals will help them keep the game close.

You will hear the FOX crew mention the word “blitz” a lot during the game, and that just might be the key to victory. No team blitzes from weirder angles or with different personnel (safety Roman Harper’s 7 ½ sacks lead the team) then the Saints. But, there’s not many better QBs against the blitz then Alex Smith. His passer rating of 96.3 was the 3rd best in the league against the blitz (ATB), and his +7 touchdown-interception ratio was 5th best ATB this season.  Michael Crabtree has emerged as a good deep threat for Smith, and with multiple check downs for him to use, he should be able to move the ball and kill the clock.

With the need of the Saints to beat us by two scores, a healthy, physical and disciplined Niners team will push the Saints all 60 minutes and play a close, playoff style game.

Houston + 7.5 @ Baltimore

This whole season I have carried along this ugly date to the dance. Now, the date is still around and I’m supposed to leave her at the table while I dance with another girl? I choose to extend my hand to that same date, and dance with her until she falls. This Houston team dominated last week, pounding the ball down Cincinnati’s throat while their defense swarmed the ball carrier.

From a matchup standpoint, the public is basing it all on reputation and past results, not on what has happened this year. Both teams have elite running backs, but only Houston has an elite O-line. Both teams have offensive weapons on the outside, but Houston has the best weapon in Andre Johnson. T.J Yates, while not great, has done a good enough job on play action getting the ball in his play makers hands, which is what he will have to do on Sunday.

The Baltimore defense only allowed 92 YPG on the ground, but when you look deeper into the numbers that was mainly due to dominating the run early in the season. Recently (last 3 games) they are giving up 122.3 YPG on the ground, which is a good omen for Arian Foster and Ben Tate.  On defense, this Texans crew will use their speed and relentless motor to rattle a shaky quarterback in Joe Flacco.

Houston is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 against winning teams, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on the road.  Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 at home, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 divisional games.  These are too many points for a team that has just as much talent as their opponent.  A straight out win could be in the cards, but a cover would do the job for our pockets. 

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